Estimation of the Best Probability Distribution for Survival Time of Transmissible Disease Patients

M. M. Shaymaa Mahood Mohammed

Keywords: Burr Distribution, Survival Function, Maximum Likelihood, Bayesian, COVID-19, Estimation.


This study conducts an in-depth analysis of survival data pertaining to COVID-19 patients, with the objective of identifying the most appropriate probability distribution for modeling this dataset. The investigation involves a comparative analysis between two fundamental distributions, namely, the Burr distribution and the exponential distribution. The researcher employs estimation techniques, including Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Bayesian estimation, to determine the most suitable probability distribution for representing the survival data. The choice of the best-fitting distribution is based on the evaluation of the Mean Squared Error (MSE) measure.